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Expected Value Calculator

Enter the potential outcomes and their associated probabilities to calculate the expected value (mean) of a random variable. Ensure that the total probability sums to 1

X P(x)

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Our Expected Value Calculator helps determine the probability-weighted average outcome of a discrete random variable (X), providing accurate results for decision-making and probability analysis.

What is Expected Value?

The expected value represents the average outcome you can anticipate from a random event over the long run. It is the "return you can expect" from an action, like guessing on a multiple-choice test. The expected value of a random variable X, denoted E(X) or E[X], is calculated using probabilities of each possible outcome.

Expected Value Formula

The expected value is calculated as:

E(X) = μx = x1P(x1) + x2P(x2) + ... + xnP(xn)

Or equivalently:

E(X) = μx = Σi=1n xi * P(xi)

  • E(X) – expected value of X
  • μx – mean of X
  • P(xi) – probability of outcome xi
  • xi – the ith outcome
  • n – total number of possible outcomes

Step-by-Step Example

Suppose we have outcomes 4, 8, 6, 3 with probabilities 0.1, 0.5, 0.04, 0.36 respectively. Find the expected value.

Solution:

  • X1 = 4, P(X1) = 0.1
  • X2 = 8, P(X2) = 0.5
  • X3 = 6, P(X3) = 0.04
  • X4 = 3, P(X4) = 0.36

Substitute values into the formula:

E(X) = (4)(0.1) + (8)(0.5) + (6)(0.04) + (3)(0.36)

E(X) = 0.4 + 4 + 0.24 + 1.08

E(X) = 5.72

✅ Interpretation: The long-term average outcome is 5.72 if the experiment is repeated many times.

How Our Expected Value Calculator Works

  • Enter the Outcomes and their corresponding Probabilities.
  • Click "Add Row" to include more values if needed.
  • Press "Calculate" to get:
    • The Expected Value
    • A complete Expected Value Table
    • Step-by-step calculation for clarity

References

From Wikipedia: Definition and Formula of Expected Value
From Investopedia: General Understanding of Expected Value (EV)

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