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Enter the potential outcomes and their associated probabilities to calculate the expected value (mean) of a random variable. Ensure that the total probability sums to 1
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Our Expected Value Calculator helps determine the probability-weighted average outcome of a discrete random variable (X), providing accurate results for decision-making and probability analysis.
The expected value represents the average outcome you can anticipate from a random event over the long run. It is the "return you can expect" from an action, like guessing on a multiple-choice test. The expected value of a random variable X, denoted E(X) or E[X], is calculated using probabilities of each possible outcome.
The expected value is calculated as:
E(X) = μx = x1P(x1) + x2P(x2) + ... + xnP(xn)
Or equivalently:
E(X) = μx = Σi=1n xi * P(xi)
Suppose we have outcomes 4, 8, 6, 3 with probabilities 0.1, 0.5, 0.04, 0.36 respectively. Find the expected value.
Substitute values into the formula:
E(X) = (4)(0.1) + (8)(0.5) + (6)(0.04) + (3)(0.36)
E(X) = 0.4 + 4 + 0.24 + 1.08
E(X) = 5.72
✅ Interpretation: The long-term average outcome is 5.72 if the experiment is repeated many times.
From Wikipedia: Definition and Formula of Expected Value
From Investopedia: General Understanding of Expected Value (EV)
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